2025-03-16
faith
Venkatesh Rao with an interesting model of community belief, covering different positions one can adopt according to the available evidence and the community level of belief (an unstated natural third axis is time). It occurs to me that this is only half the picture: it’s focused on people “trading” between these beliefs, as in the case of the crypto or stock markets, the natural position of postrationalists who view themselves as agents and beliefs as instrumental. The other side of the game is the PvP fight over the positioning of the reality frontier. If you take this lens, the position of “being out on a limb”, when your current level of belief exceeds the current belief liquidity and justified belief strength, is not necessarily an “untenable position”, but a staking of a claim. It’s akin to Einstein’s refusal to believe in quantum mechanics, a bet on black, or Kierkegaard’s leap of faith. The natural gravity that results from such a position is actually a motivation to shift the frontier, either by uncovering new information which raises the justified level of belief, or by proselytizing to increase the belief liquidity surrounding you.
Owl Posting linkthread.
