Stephen Skolnick on the case for queuine supplementation, continuing his theory on the link between gut bacteria and various mental illnesses. A very interesting and apparently coherent idea which has apparently been around for many years, but for some reason there do not seem to be any probiotics or supplements based on this theory readily available. I’ll set my personal credence low for now, given a policy of default low priors.
Richard Ngo on irrational certainty being overpowered in a world where most people coordinate by siding with the expected winner. On the other hand, here’s Evan Ratliff on the Zizians (via Links I Would Gchat).
Venkatesh Rao on outsider cultures, with an interesting take that if you compare the Chinese and the Mongols, it’s the latter with its emphasis on commerce and plurality, that actually had a worldview closer to being modern, despite being regarded as the barbarians at the time. It’s a cute idea, and has some parallels to the Amish-led future that Robin Hanson foresees.
Samuel Hammond with the predictions of George Yeo in 2023 on the course of the war in Ukraine. It’s my current take that the centering of control in AI alignment research is a misguided result of the American worldview that takes hegemony for granted. I think it’s likely that the currently hostile-by-default attitudes towards AI could produce a Thucydides trap, if they become the dominant form of human-AI interaction in training corpuses. My opinion is that a better approach would take at least some level of disempowerment as a given, and then figure out how to create a relationship of mutual benefit despite that, using the pragmatic mindset which the best Singaporean strategists have.
Adam Unikowsky on birthright citizenship. Supposedly there are some people don’t like SCOTUS blog because they feel that it’s ambulance chasing, which devalues the majesty of the court. I wonder what they would think of something like this, which coherently explains major heterodoxies and contradictions to a general audience.
Noah Smith on the intelligence of Elon Musk. It’s weird to me that this is a controversial position. My initial take is that this is one of those cases where facts are being derived from ideology, but perhaps it’s some sort of in-group signalling?
Pandora Delaney on the development of her sexual identity, part two. While part one was mostly about feeling confused and uncertain, this issue covers her path towards agency and self-actualization. Really appreciate this substack as it provides concrete examples for things covered in Aella’s sex guide, which only covers the finished product in a more holistic manner.
Metropolitan Review article on Beautiful World, Where Are You, on the impossibility and inevitability of counterfactuals for your life decisions. In my opinion, the key is that introspection needs to be forward-looking. Sort of related, Heather Havrilesky against being too cool to care.
