2024-11-09
optimism
Construction Physics on Spruce Pine Quartz.
Mutuals podcast has Divia being cautiously optimistic on the Trump presidency (Samo Burja is also pretty optimistic. Interestingly, he says that in the case of attempted governmental modernization, they will have trouble finding software staffers; it seems obvious to me that if government reform appeared feasible, that should become either an e/acc or EA cause area, or maybe both). Who knows what Trump will actually end up doing, there is a lot of hope that due to Elon Musk and JD Vance, the Progress Studies agenda will end up getting implemented. Perhaps we will get NEPA reform, removal of the Jones Act, port automation, high-speed rail, the Department of Government Efficiency, immigration reform. And perhaps the regulatory agencies like the FAA (SpaceX), FERC (nuclear powered data centers), FDA (gene therapies, biotech in general), CFTC (prediction markets), SEC (crypto), and FTC (mergers), will now get out of the way of our would-be builders. It really does seem that among the tech right, the real distinction is between the e/acc style sort of high variance optimist and the more risk-averse technocratic institutionalist. It seems to me that Brexit was an ideologically similar bet, with the belief that by leaving the over-regulatory EU, Britain could unleash its potential through great men placed in high positions: Unfortunately, that’s not what ended up happening. Personally, that’s why I wasn’t and still am not in favor of Trump, because throughout the Democratic tenure, the United States has still been overperforming the rest of the world. If your returns are already very good, over that of Europe and even China, it doesn’t seem wise to raise the variance. Still, now that we’re here, it seems best to start with a position of cautious optimism. The fears (vaccine bans, abortion bans, sweeping tariffs, Taiwan, Ukraine, CHIPS, Fed independence, etc), we’ll get to them if and when we need to.
Noah Smith series on why the Democrats lost, starting with inflation.
Scott Deveraux on how the Senate was bypassed.
Terrance Tao election reaction, context for the debate around class cancellation.
